Scotland Decides

I want to start at the end - my prediction.

To the question: Should Scotland be an Independent Country?

I predict the vote will come out this way:

Yes - 46.4%

No - 53.6%

I want to preface the rest of this post by saying this is entirely based on my observations and thoughts, with no real sources to back up anything.

Scotland votes tomorrow to decide if it can break away from the UK. We should know the result early Friday morning.

As someone who likes following elections, I've loved this. I've loved the back and forth, I've loved looking at polls, I've loved the whole thing.

I can't vote, I have no say, and to be honest, if I could vote, I don't know how I would vote - I would probably make a decision in the final seconds before I cast my vote.

For me it's a heart vs head thing.

My 'go out on your own' heart says break away, venture out, and become independent; do your own thing. I've made this 'heart' decision several times in my life. I wouldn't be in Scotland now if not for the heart decision to leave De Anza College, and a very good job, with the idea of doing something new, being someone different, not knowing what would lay ahead of me.

My heart says this will be good for Scotland, but my head says it won't.

My 'analytical/business-minded' head says don't do it, don't take the economic risks that lay ahead of you, stay with what you know. I've made this 'head' decision several times in my life. I tell people that leaving Berkeley was one of the best life decisions I've ever made. It was made with my head. I didn't think (and still don't) that it was in my economic best interest to pursue a Ph D, when I was in a job that paid me more, and gave me a better lifestyle than I would have had, if I had gone through with getting the Ph D.

Again, I can't vote, so I listen and I analyze what I hear.

The polling has bothered me because the percentage of undecided voters are more often left off the polling numbers than left on. The numbers exist somewhere, but I think those are the most important numbers of the polls. There is also little mention of margin of error on the polls - again, one of the more important factors in polling data.

According to a lot of polls, things stand at about 51-52% No and 48-49% Yes (of course, there is no mention of undecided voters in most of these polls).

Here's why I think the votes will go slightly more with the No votes.

First, I think undecided voters who do vote (some may decide not to) will vote more with No than Yes. My gut feeling is, if you're unsure about something, you tend to stay with the status quo. Maybe I'm wrong; again I have no facts to back this up.

Second, historically, older people vote in greater percentages than younger people. Some polling data have shown that younger people are more likely to vote Yes than older people. Even though there is expected to be a very high turnout, I still expect a higher percentage of older people to vote, tipping in favor of the No side.

Lastly, and this is sort of out-there thinking, I think there are a group of people who want to vote No but have some irrational fear that by saying No, they will be unpatriotic, so they may have lied to pollsters. It has been far cooler to say you're voting Yes than voting No - it's a lot easier to advertise a brand new world, than saying 'let's go status quo, just say No to something new'.

As a foreigner, I don't think I'm in the position to say which side I prefer, and I'm not even sure I have a side I prefer. I'm happy that I've been allowed to live here and have been made welcome, regardless of how different I may sound and look, so I'll be happy with whatever Scotland decides. I just hope the losing side is able to accept the outcome.